The end of Global Warming?

30 04 2008

Lubos Motl reports:

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a temperature pattern in the Pacific Ocean that spends roughly 20-30 years in the cool phase or the warm phase.

In 1905, PDO switched to a warm phase.
In 1946, PDO switched to a cool phase.
In 1977, PDO switched to a warm phase.
In 1998, PDO showed a few cool years.

In 2008, PDO seems to be switching to a cool phase. (NASA).

Note that the cool phases seem to coincide with the periods of cooling (1946-1977) and the warm phases seem to coincide with periods of warming (1905-1946, 1977-1998). It’s probably no coincidence. Warm (cool) PDO regimes tend to encourage El Ninos (La Ninas) that help to warm up (cool down) the Earth, respectively.

The Chinese proverb says: “may you live in interesting times”. Indeed, we are living in interesting times. Solar activity is reportedly in decline and the PDO could be shifting into cool phase. The theory of Global Warming is about to be tested by the authority even higher (can that be possible!?) than the UN IPCC – the planet Earth herself.

I can predict without any computer models that politically motivated Global Warming science may become extinct long before polar bears. Indeed the consensus may be settled very soon…

More from Anthony Watts.

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